The Flippening

Will China overtake the US?

China's GDP as a percentage of the United States', every year since 1960, at market exchange rates and at purchasing-power parity.

Not flipped yet
63.4%

of the US's GDP

76.7%
Peak · 2021
1.6×
To overtake, China must grow
Data as of

No. As of 2025, China's GDP is 63.4% of the US's, so China would need to grow 1.6× relative to the US to overtake it. The closest it has come in this data was 76.7% in 2021. On other measures, China stands at 134.1% on GDP at PPP of the US.

GDP China / US

Since 1960 · yearly · Source: World Bank

63.4% of US
China's GDP as a percentage of the US's, yearly from 1960 to 2025: 63.4% now, peak 76.7% in 2021.

GDP at PPP China / US

Since 1990 · yearly · Source: World Bank

Ahead · 134.1% of US
China's GDP at purchasing-power parity as a percentage of the US's, yearly from 1990 to 2025: 134.1% now, peak 134.1% in 2025.

China vs US: key numbers

China as a percentage of the US. 100% means China has caught up. Data as of .

MetricNow1 year agoPeakData since
GDP63.4%63.9%76.7% 20211960
GDP at PPP134.1%130.5%134.1% 20251990

Market rates or purchasing power

The main chart converts each country's GDP to US dollars at that year's market exchange rate. That is the usual way to compare economies, and it measures what each one's output is worth on world markets. The second chart uses purchasing-power parity (PPP), which reprices output as if a dollar bought the same basket of goods in both countries. Many goods and services cost less in China, so PPP makes its economy look bigger. On that measure China passed the US in 2014 in the World Bank's current figures, and it has stayed ahead every year since.

From 12% to 77%, then back down

At market rates China's economy was 11.9% the size of America's in 2000 and 41.1% in 2010. It peaked at 76.7% in 2021 and has lost ground every year since. High US inflation from 2021 to 2023 pushed America's GDP up in current dollars. Falling prices in China and a weaker yuan than in 2021 held China's back.

What a flip would take

Both figures are in current dollars, so the ratio moves with three things: real growth in each economy, inflation in each, and the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar. A stronger yuan would close the gap fastest, because it raises the dollar value of all of China's output at once. India is chasing China in turn, on the India vs China tracker.

These are annual figures. Each point is one calendar year from the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The latest year is a first estimate, and the World Bank revises earlier years too, so recent points can move when it publishes new data.

China vs US flip history

China has never been above the US in this data, which begins in 1960.

Frequently asked questions

Has China overtaken the US?

No. As of 2025, China's GDP is 63.4% of the US's, so China would need to grow 1.6× relative to the US to overtake it. The closest it has come in this data was 76.7% in 2021.

What is the China/US GDP ratio today?

China's GDP is 63.4% of the US's as of 2025. A year earlier, in 2024, it was 63.9%.

How close has China come to overtaking the US?

The highest reading in this data is 76.7%, in 2021. China has never been above the US in this data, which begins in 1960.

How much would China need to grow to overtake the US?

If the US's GDP stayed where it is, China's GDP would need to grow 1.6× (about +58%) to reach parity.

Has China overtaken the US on any other metric?

Yes, on GDP at PPP. China's GDP at purchasing-power parity has been above the US's every year since 2014 (now 134.1% of the US's).

Where does this data come from?

Figures are from the World Bank's World Development Indicators: GDP in current US dollars at market exchange rates (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP at purchasing-power parity in current international dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD) and total population (SP.POP.TOTL). Each point is one calendar year; the latest year is a first estimate and is often revised. Each chart plots China as a percentage of the US, so 100% is parity. The World Bank publishes these figures once a year and revises earlier years when it does; this page checks for new figures daily; the raw series are chn-usa-gdp.json, chn-usa-gdp-ppp.json.

More flippenings

ETH vs BTCHas Ethereum flipped Bitcoin yet?17.0% SOL vs ETHIs Solana flipping Ethereum?19.6% USDT vs ETHWill Tether flip Ethereum?70.4% USDC vs USDTIs USDC flipping Tether?39.9% HYPE vs SOLWill Hyperliquid flip Solana?35.2% SOL vs XRPWill Solana flip XRP?73.4% XRP vs ETHWill XRP flip Ethereum?26.8% XRP vs BTCWill XRP flip Bitcoin?4.5% BNB vs ETHWill BNB flip Ethereum?35.6% XRP vs BNBWill XRP flip BNB?75.1% SOL vs BNBWill Solana flip BNB?55.1% ZEC vs XMRHas Zcash flipped Monero?168.0% BTC vs goldWill Bitcoin flip gold?5.3% India vs ChinaHas India overtaken China?104.1% Silver vs goldWill silver flip gold?10.2%